This year I've been having a change of heart on Syria. I've long thought that Obama should have put in place a no fly zone or even overthrown Assad with NATO air support, for the sake of stability. I still thought the concept of doing it last year seemed like a recipe for world war, and to be honest, a no fly zone probably wouldn't have worked. For a while I also thought that the non-existent US arming of anti-Assad rebels was a mistake which led to the war. In the last two years I was nearly accepting the Assadist line of how he's the lesser of two evils, although I always wavered on this. Lately in my readings I've come to completely different conclusions, which I feel are important to share. Sorry to announce an unpopular opinion, but the Assadist line is self-serving nonsense. So take a seat and hear my message.
Firstly, the US never armed the FSA. The democratic factions were left SOL while the Islamists were armed by all corners of the globe and given air support by the Baathists. Assad's airforce supported ISIS and Nusra while Assad released several prominent Islamist hate mongers to poison the face of the opposition. The US armed Maghaweir Al Thawrah and other FSA groups after the ISIS ordeal began, but otherwise actual programs to arm democratic anti-Assad rebels did not exist. Had there been such support, you wouldn't have the policy of starvation as seen in Ghouta and Madaya. They'd be getting supplies airlifted in spite of the siege if their safety were so important to the coalition. Honestly, there would be no siege, because the regime would already have been forced out. Instead, the strategy is to starve civilians until they give up the rebels.
Assad is not a secularist and never has been. He gave material support to the insurgency in Iraq and can be held responsible for the deaths of many Americans there. For a supposed secularist he sure has strong ties with the Iranian crowd, which throws people off of buildings and sponsors terrorism around the world. In fact, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah have largely fought the war for him. His surrogates argue well against Saudi war crimes in Yemen, but they fail to also admit that they are war criminals. Just look at the way Assad bombs the shit out of his own people, deliberately starving civilians as a strategy of war. I guess because I'm not a politician and have no political foot in the door, I can say that both these things are war crimes. Assad is most definitely not a secularist. Appearing to be so is a good strategy to fool Islamophobes who would otherwise not support him. So like any politician, he looks where the wind is blowing and who he can posture to in order to fool the dumbfucks in the room. You know you have a sleezy/evil politician when they suddenly become a socialist, islamist, secularist, democrat, liberal minarchist, or dictator depending on what appeals to you.
This regime lost legitimacy when over 40,000 people were killed in Hama by Assad's father, Hafez. The place was leveled like Hargeisa during the Isaaq genocide. But as for the son. He has a nice smile, his wife used to be praised around the world, but this motherfucker is pure evil. I had a hard time believing such a well-educated man could be so evil. But he has definitely done these things, when millions corroborate the reports independently, when independent sources have examined the evidence and corroborated the validity. When you look at the way these assholes operate, you almost expect that their first reaction to protests would be to open fire. Do you really think that this war will end if you betray the opposition? The entire security apparatus is centered upon holding up the current regime. When all resources are on deck to save Assad, there can be no saving Syria. You might kill this ISIS, but there will be another ISIS. And it will happen in years. If not a lesson is learned, people are not going to forget about their dignity as human beings. In fact, this regime is the cradle of Islamism.
The image of headchoppers scares you people too much. When you're dead, you're dead, and that is the truth of war. It doesn't matter how you get killed if you end up in hell anyways. In this sense, having your head cut off is not so bad as being obliterated. And by all means, having your head chopped off is a relatively easy death to swallow compared to being starved and tortured until you die. ISIS is horrific, but in all their time, they have failed to make even a dent on the level of barbarity of Assad's regime. Syrian anarchist and democrat Omar Aziz once said that if the revolution were to fail, all the efforts of his generation would have been in vain. Well, Aziz was arrested, tortured and murdered some years ago, and his first commune at Barzeh fell earlier this year as 6,500 rebels and their families left for safe areas in Idlib. Safe to say we've really let a lot of hope pass. To someone who looks simply at the red/green map it looks very much like those efforts could go to waste.
Although the news is not a sightly thing these days, I do see some glimmers of hope. I disagree with Turkey's aims against SDF, full disclosure, and I see the SDF as ideologically similar to my own views. Possibly we can both be classed as the same thing. However, a look at how Turkey's actions in Al Bab and areas of Idlib which were recently consolidated as part of the Astana Agreements may provide hope. Turkey appears to be building the groundwork of a state. For instance, they rebuilt Al Bab and recently even handed control of the Bab al-Salameh border crossing over to the control of the local Free Syrian Army. As a necessity to the longevity of his reign and the oppressive power structures which fuel it, Assad needs to stamp out the rebellion. He needs to completely rout the rebellion, and tarnish its martyrs eternally with defeat and shame. He can already spin such a propaganda victory in Damascus bubbles, but if it isn't a legitimate rout, he has not truly won. Originally I thought Turkey moving into Idlib was part of a plan made at the Russia-Iran-Assad roundtable. However, more recent news has made me reconsider. The Syrian government reacted with strangely vitriolic statements condemning Turkey shortly after the Idlib operation began.
This is important. Assad's aides have long claimed that Russia is a legitimate actor in Syria due to being invited. On the other hand, it appears Turkey has made a move out of turn with Baathist desires. Some may consider that a move out of turn could provoke the ire of Russia. However, take into consideration the situation in Quneitra. Israel has consistently bombed Assad's military infrastructure, in cases where the Golan Heights may be threatened by battles and even in one case where an Israeli plane was threatened by Syrian fire when outside of Syrian airspace. At several points in the war, rebels supported by Israel through the Israeli Good Neighbors program have taken advantage of these strikes in a manner which seems too perfect not to entail some cooperation. The rebels will not lose in Daara or Quneitra, at least in the foreseeable future. Russia has not condemned Israel once for this. Indeed, just as Netanyahu threatened an escalation in strikes against the Baathists, the Russian foreign minister began a 3 day diplomatic mission to Israel. To provide another clue, earlier in the year Russia threatened to shoot down US planes if they flew west of the Euphrates. The US did so anyways and has continued to do so, to no negative consequences. For this reason, I believe the Russians are largely looking to save the day and to save their investments, not Assad. I don't see where we took the Russian puppet thing from. In 2013, after the Sarin attack which violated Obama's red line, Russia moved all of her forces out of Syria to make way for a possible invasion.
Just as I have changed my perspective slightly about who should win, my perspective has also changed from the strength calculation angle. Assad is under sanctions, while the FSA areas in Idlib and Al-Bab have full access to the world market through Turkish connections. Assad may not look wobbly anymore, but he definitely is. And the Idlib rebels are not a spent force. Just as I've said that no one will simply acquiesce to this dictator, people are gonna wait for their moment. They might seem broken, but you can't break an entire generation, especially not a freedom-loving one. The other day a TFSA "National Syrian Army" was announced. I've seen people making the obvious jokes about jihadists, but I've seen no one react to how groundbreaking this really is. The FSA has been marred by factionalism since its inception. They have not been able to form a larger unit, until now. Although Turkey partly allowed Aleppo to fall by ordering revolutionary forces from it, Erdogan is definitely taking some initiative now to do right by the rebels.
The FSA supported by Turkey and the SDF supported by the United States are two factions into which much of this revolutionary energy has coalesced. As of this year, both forces are growing to a great degree. And when other nations' soldiers are a factor, indiscriminate bombing becomes complicated. The Assadist air superiority is now slightly less of a problem, and more a risk to them. Without proper communication to avoid accidents, what's stopping the Assadists from accidentally using Sarin on Turkish or American soldiers? The consequences would be fatal. The key for the survival of the opposition is to negotiate with one another. Turkey and the US need to drop our diplomatic spat, as do our allies on the ground. If this happens, there will be a legitimate democratic opposition to get behind. It should be federal, but I understand that this may lead to some uncomfortable introspection. Either way though, rebel enclaves such as those in Southern Syria, Damascus and Golan Heights require autonomy to even exist. Have a central administration to distribute aid and resettle refugees, have an FSA that can protect the regions, but allow them to self-rule as necessary.
Even if they come under the pretense of fighting ISIS, the Baathist regime knows they're bad news. Let's hope these groups can cooperate, although I still don't expect it. Honestly, everything is geared towards the TFSA and the SDF continuing to battle, and the SDF possibly reaching an agreement with Assad. Awfully stupid deal. But while leaders lack vision in their limited capacities, the Lockerian Times is about vision. This opposition unity roundtable, coupled with a ceasefire, would mean the end of the Baathist power structure within years. Russia has recently called for a Congress of Syrian Peoples in hopes of creating a new government. The opposition came right out and refused to attend that bullshit. Right on. No need to soil the opposition with some sort of unity government alongside the plutocracy. With such people who care about nothing but power, dual power is bound to be more deadly than it has to be. Don't even negotiate with the bastards, just end the violence, swap prisoners and start rebuilding. In a sense, this means the death of a political settlement. But when people in Idlib have a comparative freedom and standard of living which is way better than in Baathist-held areas, who in their right mind would choose to live in 1984 come true?
To the people who take up the monumental task of creating a new state. Take it from me. The ability to call the President a piece of shit and not end up tortured or shot is a very important one. I've probably said it about a bakers' dozen times this week, and I'm not even a particularly political person. In America, dissenting from the government or the assholes who run it at a given time doesn't mean we hate our country. In fact, it strengthens our country to allow peaceful dissent and to rule by laws, not fear. The reason why Assad is failing is because he rules by fear rather than sense. Don't recreate this after he's gone.
And Americans, don't lend your hand to the power fantasies of a bloodthirsty dictator. Thank you for reading.
John Lockers
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