Why the Democrats Lost, and the Progressive Revolution to come

In 1948, Democrat President Truman was in a tough race against Republican Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York. Senator Strom Thurmond ran a pretty tough campaign in the South under the States' Rights Democratic banner, promising to take the party back from the landed Democratic leadership of the times due to their support of integration of the armed forces. In four states, these Dixiecrats actually snatched the Democratic ballot line, taking away the electoral votes of each. Due to the closeness of the election, it was widely speculated that the Dixiecrats would supplant the old guard of the Democratic Party in the event of a failure. However, Truman rode on the appeal of an underdog and defeated both his competitors.

A few days ago, conventional wisdom in American politics was shattered. Republican Donald J. Trump defeated the presumptuous candidate, Democrat Hillary Clinton, pulling the solidly-Democratic Rust Belt from her and winning a near landslide in the Electoral College, despite losing the popular vote by a few hundred thousand votes. Republicans retained the Congress. While all the polls predicted otherwise. Some powerful Democrats blame independent candidates for the loss in this incredibly close election, which could have gone the other way with a few hundred thousand votes. Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein, in particular. But this won't work at all. The old guard is crumbling, and a new political landscape is being formed as I write.

In the final days of the election, the Dems were silently in panic about the Rusty states. Bernie Sanders, the socialist Senator who had owned there in the primaries, was well sought after to campaign for Clinton. As I've noted, the states were incredibly close, but be not at all fooled. What happened up there was a systemic collapse of the Democratic coalition. 4 of 5 Democratic Senate candidates in the Rust Belt lost by varying margins, and previously solid blue states flipped substantially. The numbers show that in 2012, Democrat President Barack Obama carried the Rusty ones by these numbers: +7.7 in Minnesota, +1.9 in Ohio, +9.5 in Michigan, +6.7 in Wisconsin, and +5.2 in Pennsylvania. Clinton's numbers were +1.5 in Minnesota, -8.6 in Ohio, -.03 in Michigan, -1 in Wisconsin, and -1.2 in Pennsylvania.

People are flipping smokes over these numbers, and who could blame them? Ohio and Michigan were both about a 10 point swing, and Minnesota hasn't been in play for a Republican since 1972. In this particular election, Genesee County and Wayne County (cities of Flint and Detroit) gave Trump the margins needed to flip Michigan in a very close race. I've gotten insulted by being called a Trump voter for pointing this stuff out, but we'd better not make that a prevailing argument next time around. Everyone needs to soak our heads and get rid of some negative energy.

Reasons for the loss, and where we must go

Now, Clinton did slightly outperform Obama in some Southern states like Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, although she flipped none of them and actually lost Florida. The exit polls show that Trump did slightly better with minorities than previous Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Despite having waved around the idea of mass deportations liberally during the primaries, Trump was able to swing the Hispanic vote by 8 points, although he actually gained only 2 points, while his rival lost the other 6 points to other candidates. Turnout levels were depressed to a significant extent by the negative campaign and the voting population was particularly hostile to both candidates. Much of his win can be attributed to low enthusiasm for his opponent.

Looking back on her campaign, I never thought Hillary had a point to it. In a practical sense, her catchphrase was "It's Her Turn". Shit circulated around the internet, threatening voters for their lack of enthusiasm and for their enthusiasm for other candidates. She took loads of money from corporate interests, which made her distant from the voters. She relied too much on polls which turned out to be wrong. She fed into the tactics of Trump, leaving many of the Senate candidates only selling their opponents as Trump stooges. But the people who did show up seem to have seen these candidates as Clinton stooges. As Darth Traya notes, "To be united by hatred is a… fragile alliance at best."

Democrats ran against Trump, and not for themselves. While there were great things to be said on the economic and social fronts, the populist appeal was generally surrendered to the Republicans. Republicans passed a platform promising to destroy the Trans-Pacific Partnership and to bring back Glass-Steagall, also promising great job growth with a huge pack of infrastructure improvements. Despite all their assets, the Democrats stood on everything. The DNC set itself against change in a change year. And so they were swept away with the tide.

Donald Trump has won the election, and he will be the 45th President. Plans to impeach him immediately or steal the Electoral College from him are cases of sore-loserism. Let's not cry over spilled milk – let's be the ones to clean it up. Our future leadership should not indulge in these fantasies, no matter how possible they may be, but our leadership should be engaged in finding out how to win. As I have written before, Bernie Sanders held the enthusiastic heart of the Democratic party. Sending him out to campaign was a masterful scheme, but we really should've sent him to the White House. However, now that the Democratic establishment has been shown to it's demise, it is time. For the sincere, the socialists and the progressives, it is time to bring the Revolution to party leadership.

As we sift through the ashes, it is imperative to rally the energy which was sparked by Bernie Sanders' run earlier in the year. We should fulfill Donna Brazile's twitter wish: "God, please let this end soon", and boot her out from a million mile vicinity of Party leadership. My support is behind the leader of the Progressive Congressional Caucus, Minnesota Representative Keith Ellison, in his bid for the leadership of the DNC. I'm very confident in his leadership, as he has been endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, as well as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Rep. Ellison can bring our base back into the fold and unite the party. If he can bring back a 50 state strategy and begin to regain our economic message, which was hijacked and used very effectively by Trump, we can get results and regain the white working class portion of the base while roundly rejecting bigotry and corporatism. But if we throw ourselves behind landed money and landed power again, we are doomed to fail in the enthusiasm race until forever. And things will never return from there.

Missouri Sec of State Jason Kander also looks promising, having done well in his Senate race in a state Trump slaughtered in. He was the guy who assembled a rifle while blindfolded in an advertisement to defend  his position on background checks for gun purchases. In a funny yet fail ad, the GOP called him the "Pandering Panda". Keep in mind, Missouri is also termed a "kind-of-purple state" in the South. Such a person who has stood for government there can help to enact the Sunbelt strategy that I have entertained next within this article. I wouldn't mind him being co-chair with Ellison, allowing the correct messaging to go to candidates in both of these important areas.

The Senate Wars to come

Democrats were supposed to pick up the Senate this year, but as has been delineated, those ambitions melted. Luckily, the Constitution creates three classes of Senators. And if we're smart, we will create a strategy to dominate in choosing each class in the coming elections.

2018 is election year for many Democratic Senators, mostly ones in the Rust Belt, which flipped Republican this year. We have two years, and the battle begins two days ago. Let's take the reins and preserve ourselves and make this party a government in waiting. Obama said once that Bernie Sanders embodied the future of the Democratic party. Well, it is the current year – and the future is here.

United States Senate Elections, 2018

One way I see we can win this next national election would be in cultivating the Carolinas and Georgia. As he snuck up on the Democrats in the Rust Belt, we can sneak up on him in the Sunbelt. While West Virginia was a blowout, I also believe it will soon be in play due to the terminal decline of the coal industry. With the electoral votes Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina totaled, the losses in the Rust Belt would have been made up entirely. Hillary Clinton, although being a weak candidate, was able to pull close margins in these states. I believe much of this can be attributed to demographic trends in the South, which is becoming more diverse by the year. Democrats win in such areas. So making inroads with Southern whites, especially ones who voted for Trump, could flip the states. The 2020 election features the majority of Republican incumbent Senators, who are geographically distributed in the South and West. For all intents and purposes, this could be a bad year for the GOP.

United States Senate Elections, 2020

Local politics will be incredibly important in the years to come. Over the past decade, the Democratic party has been in terminal decline on the local level. This is bad because state legislatures write the House districts and will gerrymander them, effectively turning the House over to the person who invested enough in these areas. As an example, the Democrats held the House throughout the 20th century, from the beginning of the century until the 90s, in spite of national voting trends. An end to gerrymandering and abolishment of the Senate are great fantasies, but the two party system will never will it. I will note, ballot initiatives did swimmingly this year. Term limits alone are gonna be a tough battle. But we joined up in the Revolution to fight such tough battles, ones no one else would pick up. We've picked a hard and lonely road. But we've chosen wisely.

We're gonna smash your wall with sledgehammers, Trump. We'll pick your name out by the pickaxe and your presidential portrait is going in the trash. Any rare earth metals that happen to be attributed to your office tenure will be sold, the proceeds donated to victims of sexual assault. Your ass is getting kicked. You got lucky as hell and caught us when we were down, but in the next round we will give you no less than defeat. Justices Kennedy, Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan, hang in there. Senators, fight tooth and nail to defend Obamacare. Provisions protecting the vulnerable must be protected in particular.*

In spite of everything, the future of our country looks bright. We're gonna return and we're gonna kick ass. We won't leave anyone behind except the corporate shills and the lobbyists. Behind us is one of the most negative and mismanaged Democratic campaigns of our lifetimes. And before us are the eyes of God. Thank you to all my loving readers and my comrades in arms. I hope you guys stay safe, and I give condolences to the people who have been messed up the most by Trump's victory.

John Lockers

*This isn't to say I'm for obstructionism. Actually, I'm very optimistic that progressives can work with Trump on many economic issues. Fears have arisen on the social front because of Trump's running mate Mike Pence, but I believe public opinion will likely minimize the damage on more sensitive social issues. https://www.isidewith.com/poll/965633 https://www.isidewith.com/poll/2420518159 https://www.isidewith.com/poll/965629 https://www.isidewith.com/poll/935311236